Applied Managerial Statistics

Spring 2003

 

Schedule

Pre-Class Preparation: December 30- January 5, 7-9
Pre-Class Exam: The test will be administered Friday in class.
Class Location: UWF Campus
Monday, Jan. 6, Bldg 36, Rooom 191 (where QMB meets)
Friday, Jan. 10 & Saturday, Jan.11, Bldg. 74, Room 105
Monday, Jan. 13, Bldg 36, Room 191 (where QMB meets)
Class Meets: Monday, January 6, 5:30-8:30pm, Friday, January 10, 5:30 pm - 9:30 pm; Saturday, January 11, 8:00 am - 12:00 noon and 1:00 pm - 5:00 pm, and Monday, January 13, 5:30-8:30pm
Post Class Study: January 12, 14, 15
Optional Review Session: TBA
Final Examination: Thursday, January 16, 5:30 pm - 8:30 pm, UWF Campus, John C. Pace Library, 5th floor, Foundation Room, FWB Campus, TBA

For directions to the campus or to the building and room, please visit this link: http://nautical.uwf.edu/facil/map/main.cfm?SupportFlash=1

 


Professor

Dr. Nestor M. Arguea
Associate Professor
Department of Marketing and Accounting
email: narguea@uwf.edu
Phone: (850) 474-3071

 

Module description

The course will cover basic statistics concepts including: descriptive statistics, measures of location, measures of dispersion, basic probability theory, the normal distribution, inferential statistics, basic notions of hypothesis testing, and introduction to correlation analysis. In addition, this course intends to teach students the basics of data analysis, and access to information by providing them with the latest sources of information at the firm level, State level, or Federal level, from key sites in the Internet.

 

Objectives

The objective of this is to provide students with the foundation background in applied statistics with the purpose of facilitating: The understanding of the relationship between statistics and the applications to business decision making. The reading and understanding of statistics presented in business oriented reports, and technical literature. The calculation of statistics from data. The interpretation and communication of statistical information to non-technical readers.

 

Required study materials

HyperStat Online Textbook. Copyright © 1993-2001 David M. Lane, http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/index.html, This is an electronic text that you can access for free.

Introduction to quantitative decision making, http://www.wiley.com/college/harnett/, Harnett, D.L. and J.F. Horrell, Data, Statistics, and Decision Models with Excel. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998.

This is the main text used in QMB 6305 Quantitative Methods for Business. The textbook comes with two diskettes: a data disk, and a set of Excel macros. Follow the directions under "Pre-class assignments & assessments" to install the macros in Excel.Chapter 1 of Harnett and Horrell Data, Statistics, and Decision Models with Excel.

 

A note on concepts in the online text

The statistical concepts presented in both the online text and the hard copy text for the QMB course are very consistent in the notation with very few exceptions. We will follow the language used in the QMB text. For instance:

When going through the concepts in the online text do not go beyond the concepts listed in outline of the units presented below. Some of the more advanced topics in the online text will be covered later in the regular QMB class.

 

Recommended study materials:

StatSoft, Inc. (2001). Electronic Statistics Textbook. Tulsa, OK: StatSoft., http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html.

A more advanced text in statistics. Recommended sections include:

Note.The Statistical Glossary works well only in Netscape. Prometheus will open another Netscape window for the glossary (when you click on Statistical Glossary). It does not work well within Prometheus using Internet Explorer. If you use Internet Explorer, one alternative is to manually open another IE session outside Prometheus to access the Statistical Glossary.

SurfStat australia, http://www.anu.edu.au/nceph/surfstat/surfstat-home/surfstat.html

Useful for the exercises section.

 

Pre-class assignments

(1) Reading

Read the following chapters from HyperStat Online Textbook. Copyright © 1993-2001 David M. Lane

1. Introduction to statistics

2. Data description (univariate)

2.1. Review the exercises and solutions related to descriptive statistics in the following two links:

3. Introduction to probability

4. The normal distribution:

5. Also, read Chapter 1 Introduction to quantitative decision making, from Harnett and Horrell's Data, Statistics, and Decision models with Excel.


(2) Loading Excel macros

Load into Excel the macros in file KADD.XLA located in one of the diskettes that comes with the textebook. If you purchased a used book that did not include the file with the macros, you can download it by following this link.

Steps for the installation of the macros

(a) If you have the diskette with the macro go to (b). Otherwise, download the file kadd.exe from the site above. Execute kadd.exe (this is a self-extracting file) so the file kadd.xla is created. Store the file in a folder and remember the location.

(b) Open Excel. Go to Tools, and select Add-ins. Select Browse, and search for the file kadd.xla. Once you find it, select OK. Excel will add that set of macros to the list of add-ins (be sure that the macro has a check once loaded in Excrel). Select OK. The macro will be loaded and will appear as a new menu item next to the help item in the menu bar.

(c) Kadd should be ready. Go to menu and select Kadd. A list of about 15 items will appear. Try the Probabilities command (we will be using this in class).

 

Self assessment

Go through the test (under testing) as an assessment of prior knowledge of the subject. This test is designed to help students identify difficult topics and will not be graded. Go ahead and take the test now . Some of the topics in these questions may be a little difficult. They will be covered in class.

There will be a pre-class assessment test given during the first in-class meeting that will count as 20% of your overall grade.

 

Plan of the Foundations course

The plan for this foundations course is to cover the topics listed in the outline that follows in twelve hours of instruction distributed over two days: a four-hour session on Friday (5:30pm-9:30pm), and an eight-hour session on Saturday (8:00am-12:00pm, and 1:00pm-5:00pm).


Outline

The topics of the course are organized in 8 units.

Units 1, 2
Data analysis. Applications in business
What is statistics?
Sources of data
Applications in business
Activities in statistics
Descriptive statistics
Inferential statistics
Population and sample
Random sampling

Graphical analysis
Data description
Bar graphs and pie charts
Box plots
Frequency tables and histograms
Cross-classification tables
Scatterplots
Using Excel

Numerical analysis
Measures of location
Measures of variability
Measures of relative location
Measures of association between two variables
Covariance
Correlation
Use of the standard deviation
Using Excel

Unit 3
Basics of probability
Probability
The probability of an event
Probability rules
Conditional probability
Joint probability
Marginal probability
Using Excel

Discrete probability distributions
Random variable
Discrete/Continuous random variable
Discrete probability distributions
Information about the random variable
Expected value
Variance
Standard deviation
Probability density function (PDF)
Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
Using Excel

The binomial distribution
Using Excel

Unit 4
The normal distribution
Probability models for continuous random variables
The Normal Probability Distribution
The Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Finding areas under the normal
Computing the z-value
Areas between 0 and positive z
Find a value of z for a given area
Detecting normality
Histogram
Intervals: 1s, 2s, and 3s
Interquartile range over s
Normal probability plot
Sample distribution
The sampling distribution of the mean: a central limit theorem
Using Excel

Units 5, 6
Estimation
Inferential statistics
Point estimators
Estimation of the population mean
Reliability of Estimation of the population mean
95% Confidence intervals
Estimation of population proportions
Using Excel


Units 7, 8
Hypothesis testing
Concept
Null and alternative
Objective
Possible results
Elements of a test of hypothesis
One-side and two-side tests
Using Excel

 

Post class assignment

Study for test

 

Assessment

Final exam