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Second Quarter Bed Tax Numbers Indicate Modest Regional Growth
by Melissa Neal, PhD

During the second quarter of 2008, Northwest Florida bed tax collections increased a very modest 2.96% over the same time period in 2007.  Overall collections for the Northwest Florida region (at a 2% rate) were $6.4 million from April 2008 – June 2008. Although collections are not increasing at the rates we have seen in the past, our forecast shows that bed taxes will continue to increase slowly over the next 12 months.

Across Florida, bed tax collections were flat in May 2008 compared to May 2007, and down 0.7% in June 2008 from June 2007. Other key indicators, such as visitor volume and occupancy rates are beginning to decline as fewer visitors travel to the state, especially by air.
Below is a chart that outlines individual county growth during this time period.  The Haas Center tracks bed tax revenues on a monthly basis because they are a valuable indicator of the number of tourists visiting Northwest Florida.  Using this data, the Haas Center staff can forecast future levels of tourism in the Northwest Florida area.

The graph shown depicts actual, seasonally adjusted, and forecasted bed taxes for Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, and Bay counties.  The seasonally adjusted numbers show the steady increase in bed tax collections over the past several years.  Because each county collects bed taxes at different rates, we convert all data to a 2-percent level for analysis purposes.  These figures do not represent actual tax revenue collected; however, they are an indicator of the health of the tourism industry in the area.

The graph also includes an estimate of the bed tax figures for the Northwest Florida region through June 2009.  These figures were forecast using a 95-percent confidence level.  The forecast lines depict the most probable scenarios for bed taxes within an upper and lower range.  In other words, the Haas Center is forecasting that actual bed tax collections could fall anywhere within the upper and lower lines on this graph.

As the graph shows, bed tax revenues vary widely depending on the season.  Bed taxes historically rise steadily from January to August, and that trend continues through the first quarter of 2008. However, only Escambia and Walton counties experienced an increase in their bed tax collections over the same time period in 2007.

Each month, the Haas Center collects, analyzes, and disseminates tourism data which includes detailed statistics of various tourism indicators in Northwest Florida.  Information on the five county region is posted on our tourism website at haas.uwf.edu/tourism.  Detailed data on the site includes bed taxes, airport enplanements and deplanements, and hotel and restaurant sales for the five-county area.  If you would like more information on this or other tourism research projects, please contact Melissa Neal at (850) 833-9113, or by e-mail at mneal@uwf.edu.